|Hurricane Ike "Underperforms"|
|Written by Sherry|
|Saturday, 13 September 2008 07:31|
This in fron the Weather Nerd blog on Hurricane Ike: (By the way the Weather Nerd is the blogger who predicted the devastating impact of Katrina.)
7:46 AM EDT: As I explain below, it appears Ike’s storm surge was far less severe than all the models and experts predicted. This was not a Category 2 hurricane with a Category 4 surge, as we featured it would be. Surge heights generally peaked around 10-12 feet, not the 15-25 feet projected.
Obviously, this is very good news. Hopefully the media will report it, rather than ignoring it. When a hurricane underperforms expectations, people need to be told this — and, if possible, be told why it happened — rather than being subjected to ongoing, unrelenting hype that pretends a lucky non-calamity was the calamity we feared. When the hype continues as if nothing has changed, the public is less likely to recognize that things could easily have been far worse, and that the doom-and-gloom predictions actually appeared fully justified at the time they were made, based on then-available data. This leads to ever more cynicism and complacency about future predictions. This is actually where the media screws up most severely in my view: in failing to ramp down the hype, once it becomes clearly unjustified.
Thanks be to God! I know that many millions were praying.
Obviously, no one is saying there won't be extensive damage or even deaths - as an unbelievable 40 percent of the Galveston population refused to evacuate!!!!!!
I know, I know, Mississippians did the same thing and so some tragic stories are bound to emerge.
But it won't be Katrina level horror stories.
Thank God. Thank God. Let's keep praying for all who are still hunkered down in the midst of the storm.